Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, dives into crucial discussions on trade, the dollar, and Fed independence. He shares insights on how current tariff policies are impacting market dynamics, emphasizing the cautious optimism surrounding the ongoing market rally. The conversation also touches on China's economic landscape and the challenges of aging state investments. Posen's thoughts on these issues provide a valuable perspective for investors navigating an uncertain economic climate.
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insights INSIGHT
China's Growth Challenges
China faces fundamental growth limits due to heavy state-directed capital rather than innovation.
The private sector innovates, but public sectors remain stuck in outdated industries impacting competitiveness.
insights INSIGHT
Dollar Risk Hedging Revealed
Investors are hedging currency risk against the US dollar due to concerns over fiscal stability.
This hedging affects the dollar more than equities or bonds, showing fundamental shifts in risk perception.
insights INSIGHT
Dollar Reserve Status Evolving
The US dollar retains its reserve currency status but is losing its dominant centrality.
The global economy is gradually decentering from dollar weighting in reserves, transactions, and pegs.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 22nd, 2025 Featuring: 1) Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins for an extended discussion on trade, the dollar, and Fed independence. Stocks slipped Tuesday while investors braced for news from companies on how tariffs are filtering through to their earnings. JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Hugh Gimber told Bloomberg TV that strong second-quarter earnings won't tell us a huge amount about where we are going forward, and that's where we are spending our energy on this earnings season, trying to gauge where the hit from tariffs will come through. 2) Libby Cantrill, Managing Director: Public Policy at PIMCO, talks about why she thinks Jay Powell will not be fired and why the release of Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship is unlikely. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there should be a review of the decision to renovate parts of the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington. Bessent said the Fed's independence "is a cornerstone of continued US economic growth and stability", and that its conduct of monetary policy "is a jewel box" that should be preserved. 3) Ian Wyatt, Chief Economist at Huntington Bank, on the broader US economy, US consumer, and why the Southeast is outperforming northern states and has room to run. A record-breaking stock rally has powered on in the face of growing uncertainty over trade negotiations ahead of the Aug. 1 tariff deadline. 4) Ayesha Kiani, NYU Professor and COO at MNNC Group, on the crypto and Bitcoin surge and what the passing of Stablecoin legislation means for the industry, as well as fraud potential. It comes as Bitcoin's price has surged to over $120,000, with its value coming from its finite supply and perceived role as a macro hedge. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on how the affordability crisis in New York City is expanding to a new area of urban life -- animal shelters, as well as a Business Insider story on TikTok's message to managers: Don't 'be nice' during performance reviews.
Bloomberg Surveillance 
