How to cut government debt, with Robin Wigglesworth
Sep 30, 2024
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Robin Wigglesworth, an expert on government debt, discusses Jamaica's remarkable turnaround from a staggering 140% debt-to-GDP ratio to halving its debt in just seven years. He highlights how political cooperation and fiscal discipline were vital in this process, allowing Jamaica to maintain significant primary surpluses. Wigglesworth also explores lessons for larger economies, and the need for growth-oriented solutions that balance debt management with middle-class welfare. The conversation paints a hopeful picture of Jamaica's potential economic future.
Jamaica successfully reduced its government debt by implementing strict fiscal discipline through significant primary surpluses over several years.
The country's economic recovery was bolstered by a unique political consensus that fostered collaboration among diverse interest groups and supported reform efforts.
Deep dives
Jamaica's Economic Recovery Success
Jamaica faced an extreme economic crisis in the 2010s, marked by a staggering debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 140%. The country had a history of struggling with International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs, often failing to meet their requirements, leading to widespread skepticism about future aid. However, with a new government in 2012, Jamaica embraced fiscal discipline and implemented substantial primary surpluses averaging over 7% of GDP for seven consecutive years. This extraordinary commitment to austerity allowed Jamaica to stabilize its economy and significantly reduce its debt burden, proving many international observers wrong who expected a collapse.
Political Cohesion and Institutional Strength
The political landscape in Jamaica enabled a unifying consensus that supported its economic recovery. In contrast to many countries that struggle under political divisions, Jamaica developed a cohesive platform for dialogue across various interest groups, shaped by a history of political violence that ultimately led to a collective willingness to move forward. Committees like the Economic Program Oversight Committee (EPOC) involved diverse stakeholders, fostering a shared vision for economic reform. This sense of ownership over the IMF program helped cultivate public support, contrasting with the often adversarial political atmospheres seen in other nations.
Lessons for Other Nations
Jamaica's experience demonstrates that severe fiscal discipline, while effective, can potentially harm economic growth if not balanced carefully. Although Jamaica achieved a significant reduction in debt, this austerity came at the cost of slower economic growth compared to its peers. The lesson for other countries is that while it is possible to emerge from debt crises via strict financial measures, it is crucial to maintain a focus on fostering growth and public service investments. Therefore, while Jamaica's path illustrates a viable route for economic recovery, it is not necessarily a model that every struggling nation should replicate, as the long-term impacts of such austerity must be weighed.
Jamaica’s economy struggled for decades, and at one point it had amassed debts worth more than 140 per cent of GDP. Even the IMF wouldn’t return its calls. But somehow, in the 2010s, it managed to halve its government debt – over just seven years. Today on the show, we ask how they did it, and what lessons Jamaica can teach much larger economies.
Soumaya Keynes writes a column each week for the Financial Times. You can find it here