Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief equity strategist, shares her insights on the standout performance of European stocks this year, which has outpaced the U.S. market. She discusses the economic fundamentals fueling this resurgence and why European markets may be undervalued. The conversation delves into the contrasting narratives of U.S. growth vs. European value, explores the impacts of currency fluctuations, and highlights promising investment strategies in various sectors, making a compelling case for Europe's market potential.
European markets are currently outperforming the U.S., driven by lower price-to-earnings ratios and potential growth opportunities.
U.S. investors' reluctance to invest in Europe stems from historical disappointments, which may require sustained performance to change perceptions.
Deep dives
Rethinking Investment in Europe
Investment in Europe has recently shown potential for growth, particularly as European markets have been outperforming the U.S. The current price-to-earnings ratios in Europe are significantly lower than those in the U.S., suggesting that European equities may present value opportunities. Historical data indicates that the U.S. was trading at a peak premium relative to the rest of the world, while Europe was at a historic discount. This shift in valuation offers a compelling narrative as expectations for U.S. companies have reached unsustainable highs compared to the low expectations for European markets, allowing for a possible upside in European equities.
Challenges in U.S. Investor Sentiment
U.S. investors exhibit a strong reluctance to shift investments towards Europe due to a long-standing belief in the superiority of U.S. markets. Even amid positive market movements in Europe, there has been a notable lack of inflows from U.S. investors into European ETFs, with a stark contrast to the significant investment pouring into U.S. equities. This hesitance stems in part from past disappointments, creating a Pavlovian response where investors hesitate to act until they see sustained performance. Changing this sentiment could take time, with many believing that several quarters of solid performance in Europe would be necessary to alter long-standing perceptions.
The Case for Active Management in European Markets
The current landscape of European stocks suggests there is a unique opportunity for active management to thrive. As traditional passive investments in Europe struggle to draw attention, active managers may be able to identify and capitalize on the emerging winners in the market. The recent shifts in market dynamics, including a transition away from financial-heavy ETFs to those emphasizing technology and industrials, signal changing investor preferences. This also presents an opportunity for innovative ETF products that cater to growing sectors within Europe, which have historically lagged in performance but may now offer substantial growth potential.
European stocks are off to a strong start this year—one of their best ever in fact and easily beating the US market. But can it last? Will US tech stocks come roaring back again? And are there any reasons to invest in Europe besides stocks there just being “cheap?”
On this episode of Trillions, Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber speak with Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief equity strategist, and Todd Sohn, senior exchange-traded fund and technical strategist at Strategas Securities. They discuss Europe’s fundamentals, the market’s limitations and why it’s outperforming now.