America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show Transaction Volume Forecast 2025 with Jim Costello
Mar 6, 2025
Jim Costello, an experienced economist at MSCI, joins broker Michael Bull to dissect the commercial real estate landscape and the 2025 transaction forecasts. They delve into the rising transaction volumes, particularly noting a 9% increase leading into 2025. The discussion highlights the unique challenges of distressed properties, emphasizing the advantages of local developers. Additionally, they explore shifts in the office sector post-COVID and the evolving debt market, pointing out the emerging opportunities within the multifamily realm and underutilized areas.
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Transaction Volume Trends
- 2024 saw increased transaction volume, a positive sign of market stabilization.
- However, current volumes remain below the peaks of 2021-2022 due to low interest rates.
Distressed Property Trends
- Current distress in real estate is primarily fundamental, not financial, unlike post-2008.
- This involves properties needing significant renovations and CapEx, attracting local developers.
Office Market Bifurcation
- The office market shows a significant divide between major coastal cities and other areas.
- Older office buildings struggle, while newer, well-amenitized spaces outperform.