HousingWire Daily Revisiting the mortgage rate lockdown, now with more data
Jan 5, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst known for his expertise in housing market data, joins Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler to debunk the mortgage rate lockdown myth. He presents three years of data supporting his claim that low locked-in rates haven't stifled sales. They explore the 'golden handcuffs' argument, revealing that many sellers still moved. Logan analyzes the shifting mortgage rate distribution and discusses the impact of affordability versus choice in today's market, providing insights on future trends as we approach 2026.
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Rate Lockdown Is A Marketing Myth
- Logan Mohtashami argues the "mortgage rate lockdown" was a marketing myth and not supported by long-term data.
- He shows past cycles where homeowners sold low-rate loans to buy again, so rates alone didn't freeze activity.
Proving 'No Homes To Buy' Wrong
- Logan recounts proving the "no homes to buy" claim wrong using a decade of data.
- He says 2 million more homes sold despite record-low inventory during the COVID years.
Supply Follows Demand In Housing
- Mohtashami emphasizes supply is a function of demand because most sellers are also buyers.
- He says homeowners often relinquish low-rate mortgages when they move, keeping turnover flowing.