Macro & Volatility™
Macro & Volatility™ #1
Jun 16, 2024
Financial experts Michael Purves and Josh Silva dive into topics such as the upcoming Fed meeting, market expectations, equity market dynamics, interest rate effects, Fed mandates, rate volatility, VIX behavior, and the 'Dual Goldilocks' concept.
11:05
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Quick takeaways
- Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be limited to 1-3 in the first half of the year to control rising real rates and avoid financial tightening, impacting equity market reactions.
- Equity derivatives market is witnessing a shift towards call buying over put buying, reflecting a flattening skew and reduced interest in holding puts post-cuts, with potential technical sell-offs and bullish market trends.
Deep dives
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations
The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with initial expectations of up to seven cuts but now pricing in around six. The conversation suggests a potential walk back in cuts to about one to three in the first half of the year, signaling a move to manage real rates from rising too much to avoid financial tightening, with implications for equity market reactions.
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