Hidden Forces Late-Cycle Investment Theory: Foundations for the Coming Decade | Nicolas Colin
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Dec 29, 2025 
Nicolas Colin, a former French Treasury official and co-founder of a European startup accelerator, dives deep into his 'Late Cycle Investment Theory.' He argues that AI represents an intensification of existing paradigms rather than a new revolution. The conversation explores historical parallels to the 1970s, emphasizing how financial systems lag in change. Colin also discusses the potential of tokenization and programmable money to reshape global finance amidst rising competition between the U.S. and China. Tune in for insights on technological revolutions and economic development.
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Career Pivot From Engineering To Startups
- Nicolas Colin left engineering after the dot-com crash and pivoted to public service and later to startups and acceleration.
- He co-founded a pan-European accelerator that grew offices in London, Paris, and Berlin and a portfolio of ~100 companies.
AI As Continuation, Not Reboot
- AI is largely an intensification of the decades-long computing-and-networks paradigm rather than a wholly new revolution.
- Rapid adoption of ChatGPT-style models shows continuity, not a restart, of the existing techno-economic cycle.
Orient Strategy By Cycle Stage
- Use Perez's stages to orient investment strategy: identify winners in the synergy phase and incumbents in the maturity phase.
- Adjust allocation away from crowded mega-cap bets and seek underappreciated late-cycle opportunities.