Know Your Risk Podcast Frenemies Can Talk: US/China Update
6 snips
Jun 9, 2025 The discussion dives into the recent U.S.-China negotiations, focusing on rare earth elements and their global trade implications. It highlights the delicate balance both nations must maintain regarding export controls, especially for technologies like semiconductors. The conversation shifts to the intricate economic interdependence and how fluctuating oil prices and a weaker dollar affect global stability. Lastly, the impact of geopolitical factors on capital flows and the resilience of U.S. equities against Chinese market fluctuations is examined.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
China's Leverage in Trade
- China has more leverage than the U.S. because it produces critical industrial materials and components.
- Supply chain dependencies on China make U.S. export controls less effective.
Oil, Dollar Impact Emerging Markets
- Weak oil prices coupled with a weaker dollar have benefited emerging markets significantly this year.
- Rising oil prices would reverse these benefits and pressure rate cuts in emerging economies.
Watch Jobless Claims Carefully
- Monitor weekly jobless claims closely as recent warm readings raise caution flags.
- Use jobless claims data to adjust expectations for economic health and market moves.