Americano: are pollsters underestimating Joe Biden?
Feb 26, 2024
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Exploring the state of polls and why vaccines are divisive in the election; bookmakers might underestimate Joe Biden, and the impact of the cost of living. Analyzing Trump and Biden's chances, polling data, and demographic shifts. Discussing trust in elections, voter behavior, and factors shaping the election outcome. Exploring Democratic candidate polling data and electoral impact.
Vaccination levels and attitudes towards affirmative action are key predictors of voter behavior.
Cost of living, inflation, and economic stability are central themes overshadowing traditional social divides.
Deep dives
Trump's Chances in 2024 Election
Despite Trump's popularity, recent polls show a narrower lead across swing states compared to the previous election. Incumbent presidents typically gain votes during election years, with Joe Biden needing a slight increase to secure victory, making the race competitive.
Polling Errors and Voter Behavior
Past polling errors, such as underestimating Trump's support, highlight the challenge of accurately gauging voter sentiment. Insights from the American National Election Survey suggest overlooked low trust voters, disproportionately favoring Trump. Trump's claims of election rigging aimed to boost turnout, impacting voter behavior.
Factors Affecting Election Dynamics
Vaccination levels and attitudes towards affirmative action serve as key predictors of voter behavior. Changes in voter demographics, influenced by evolving issues like abortion and economic concerns, contribute to shifting electoral landscapes.
Election Issues and Candidate Analysis
Cost of living, inflation, and economic stability emerge as central election themes, potentially overshadowing traditional social divides. Concerns over Biden's age and candidate performance hint at a dynamic electoral landscape with room for shifting alliances and voter preferences.
Freddy Gray speaks to James Kanagasooriam who is the chief research officer at Focal Data about the state of the polls. They discuss why vaccines have become a polarising topic for this election; why bookmakers might be underestimating Joe Biden and the importance of the cost of living.
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