The Mordor Economy envisions a future where humans allocate 50% of energy towards obtaining energy and the other 50% towards remediation of environmental damages caused by energy use.
Declining net energy leads to an increasing allocation of resources towards procuring energy, resulting in a decline in total net energy and a greater focus on addressing environmental impacts, potentially leading to a simplified society.
Deep dives
The Mordeaux Economy and Energy Dissipation
The podcast discusses the concept of a Mordeaux economy, wherein humans would spend 50% of energy on obtaining energy and the other 50% on remediating environmental damages caused by energy use. Although this cannot be achieved due to the need for food and shelter, the speaker explains the logic of how we could head in that direction. They highlight the maximum power principle in nature, where organisms self-organize to better degrade energy gradients. They also note the correlation between energy and GDP, with increasing GDP leading to the doubling of energy and materials every 30 years. This discussion raises concerns about the sustainability of our civilization's energy dissipating structure and the need for environmental remediation.
Declining Net Energy and Allocation of Resources
The podcast explores the consequences of declining net energy. The speaker initially had an erroneous belief that as net energy declined, GDP would decline as well. However, due to the ability of humans to create abstractions and issue debt, GDP can be sustained even with declining net energy. As a result, lower quality forms of energy are accessed, resulting in a decline in total net energy. This leads to an increasing allocation of resources towards procuring energy, with a larger percentage of energy directed to the energy sector. Simultaneously, the speaker highlights the need for environmental remediation, which further reduces the resources available for the rest of society. This podcast presents a potential future scenario of a world with a more door economy where more resources are allocated to obtaining energy and addressing environmental impacts, resulting in a great simplification of society.
This week, Nate walks through the path we are currently on en route to the Great Simplification - a path towards a “Mordor Economy”. Based on data from colleagues Art Berman and Carey King, Nate untangles the complex relationship between biology, GDP, and net energy. How is an economic metabolism based on a need for growth creating a pathway for increasing amounts of energy to be directed to the energy sector itself? Why hasn’t the rapid growth of renewables satiated our energy appetite? How is the use of credit masking the full energetic-cost of energy? Can we proactively take the necessary steps to reset the balance between energy efficiency and energy consumption to pass through Mordor unscathed and arrive at the Great Simplification?