HousingWire Daily Fed week preview: What to expect for mortgage rates
9 snips
Sep 15, 2025 
In this discussion, Logan Mohtashami, a leading housing market analyst, shares his expert insights on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. He explains how Fed policies could impact mortgage rates and highlights the intricate relationship between economic indicators and market dynamics. The conversation covers historical trends, current labor data, and the political influences shaping economic decision-making. Mohtashami provides a compelling look at what might lie ahead for mortgage rates and the broader economic landscape.
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Forecast Around The 10‑Year Yield
- Logan targets the 10-year yield rather than mortgage rates to forecast movement.
- He links 65–75% of mortgage/10-year behavior to Fed policy and spread dynamics.
Spreads Drive Mortgage Rate Range
- Mortgage spreads matter: closer 'slow dance' between 10-year and 30-year means normal, lower mortgages.
- Logan expects 2025 mortgage spreads to tighten, producing rates roughly between 5.75% and 7.25% depending on yields.
Read The Fed's Wording Closely
- Watch Fed language about remaining 'modestly restrictive' versus moving toward neutral or dovish.
- Use that wording as a signal for bond markets and mortgage-rate direction.