HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami: How Trump can influence Powell on mortgage rates
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Jun 23, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, the Lead Analyst renowned for his housing market insights, joins to discuss the intricate interplay between politics and economic policy. He delves into how Trump’s pressure on Fed Chair Powell might sway mortgage rates this summer. The conversation touches on the Fed's labor market-driven decisions, the necessity of global confidence in the U.S. economy, and critiques of media narratives. Mohtashami also introduces intriguing concepts like the 'Hodor line' and 'Gandalf line,' shedding light on mortgage market dynamics and future trends.
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Fed Won't Cut Rates for Budget
- Trump wants the Fed to cut interest rates to ease the federal budget deficit and allow more tax cuts.
- The Federal Reserve's mandate focuses solely on employment and inflation, not government financing costs.
Shadow Fed President Dynamics
- The "shadow Fed president" concept involves signaling a favored Fed chair candidate who promises rate cuts.
- Waller or Bowman would be more credible nominees than Wahl, who seems like a Trump puppet.
Mortgage Sales and Rate Outlook
- Year-over-year mortgage sales growth is expected mainly due to low comps from the previous year.
- Lower mortgage rates require weaker labor data and better forward guidance from the Fed for cuts.