On The Market The $84T “Wealth Transfer” Coming for the Housing Market
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Sep 11, 2025 Exploring the $84 trillion wealth transfer, the discussion dives into how millennials might shape the housing market with significant inheritances. Will aging boomers lead to a housing crash or a surge in demand? The complexities of housing affordability are tackled, alongside a look at zombie foreclosures and their implications for investors. Job market trends and the impact of AI on employment add another layer of intrigue, making for a thought-provoking conversation on the future of real estate.
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Wealth Transfer Won't Automatically Boom Housing
- An $84 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer could create tailwinds for housing as millennials inherit and buy property.
- But simplistic math and demand-side extrapolations overstate how many new buyers will actually enter the market.
Demographic Narratives Are Contradictory
- Aging boomers are framed both as a crash risk and a boom catalyst, creating contradictory narratives.
- Dave Meyer argues the likely outcome is boring stagnation rather than a dramatic boom or crash.
Hope For Price Stagnation, Not A Melt-Up
- Expect housing to be pressured by affordability and slower real, inflation-adjusted price growth.
- Favor scenarios where wages catch up while prices stagnate to restore long-term affordability.