Economist Calling for an Emergency 75 Basis Point Rate Cut
Aug 12, 2024
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In this discussion, Jeremy Siegel, a well-respected economist known for his insights on market trends, teams up with financial analyst Steve Van Metre. They delve into the possibility of an emergency 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, considering the unsettling state of the labor market and rising unemployment. Siegel reveals his hesitations about advocating for immediate cuts, while they analyze the impacts of Fed policies on job growth. The pair navigates the intricate balance between inflation control and economic stability, amidst rising layoffs and cautious optimism.
The Federal Reserve is navigating a precarious economic landscape, with rising unemployment raising concerns about the labor market's resilience.
Jeremy Siegel's shift away from advocating for emergency interest rate cuts highlights the growing uncertainty and cautious approach within the Fed.
Deep dives
Federal Reserve's Uncertain Position
The Federal Reserve is in a precarious situation as it grapples with a weakening labor market. Officials are attempting to reassure the public that the economy is stable, despite clear signs of trouble ahead, particularly concerning rising unemployment rates. Notably, prominent economist Jeremy Siegel shifted his viewpoint on aggressive interest rate cuts, reflecting a broader uncertainty within the Fed about the necessity and timing of such measures. This discrepancy illustrates the tension between the Fed's public messaging and the underlying economic realities they face.
Labor Market Concerns and Data Interpretation
An emerging concern from Fed officials is whether the labor market can sustain its current performance as economic conditions worsen. While initial unemployment claims may show a decrease, continued claims are on the rise, raising alarms about potential widespread job losses as summer ends. Officials, like Richard Barkin, noted the unusual nature of low hiring rates, which often indicate a recession is already underway. The Fed is aware that the current climate is precarious and is monitoring upcoming employment data closely to guide their policy decisions.
Narrative Shift and Future Rate Cuts
There has been a noticeable shift in the narrative among Fed officials regarding economic health, specifically the labor market's resilience. The initial confidence in a 'soft landing' has eroded, with concerns about rising layoffs and inadequate job creation becoming more pronounced. As businesses report decreased customer demand and reduced spending, the Fed may be prompted to consider rate cuts as a necessary step to mitigate further economic decline. Nonetheless, there is an ongoing debate within the Fed about the timing and impact of such cuts, underscoring their cautious approach in navigating the current economic uncertainty.
After a chaotic, somewhat panicky prior week, the talking points went out with a clear aim to restore calm. That meant downplaying every last concerning development, starting with Jeremy Siegel. Sure enough, he played along and on it went from there. Even Fed officials know what's coming yet they'll keep denying anything's wrong right up until the first emergency meeting rate cut.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
CNBC Jeremy Siegel backs off on calls for the Fed to do an emergency interest rate cut https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/08/jeremy-siegel-backs-off-on-calls-for-fed-to-do-an-emergency-rate-cut.html
Bloomberg Barkin Says Economy Healthy With Key Questions Around Job Market https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-03/barkin-says-economy-healthy-with-key-questions-around-job-market
Bloomberg Layoffs Are a Last Resort Looming for More US Companies https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/us-edges-towards-layoffs-as-job-market-cools-fed-rates-pressure-firms
Bloomberg Layoffs Are a Last Resort Looming for More US Companies https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/us-edges-towards-layoffs-as-job-market-cools-fed-rates-pressure-firms