Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, an expert on China's economic miracle and its growing power, discusses the decline of China's economy in 2023 due to negative foreign direct investment. They explore China's evolving role in the global economy, the impact on China's supply chains, and its influence in developing countries.
China's economic miracle ended in 2023 as foreign direct investment turned negative, signaling a significant shift in China's economic landscape.
China's real estate bubble burst in 2023 due to a debt crisis and the effects of the pandemic, resulting in a significant economic slowdown and the end of the real estate fueled growth model.
Deep dives
China's Economic Miracle Comes to an End in 2023
Foreign direct investment in China turned negative in the third quarter of 2023, marking a significant shift in China's economic landscape. China's role in the global economy has evolved from being the "factory of the world" to becoming a dominant player in emerging technologies such as robotics, quantum computing, and green energy. American companies have long viewed China's market as crucial for future profits and have invested heavily in the country. However, a combination of factors, including increased political scrutiny by the Chinese government on foreign firms operating in China and a slowdown in the Chinese economy, has contributed to the end of China's economic miracle as we know it.
The Debt Crisis and Real Estate Slowdown
China's debt crisis, fueled by massive stimulus packages and local government spending on real estate projects, has led to a bursting of the real estate bubble. This dual bubble carried on for years due to supportive policies from Beijing and rapid economic growth. However, in 2023, the real estate fueled economic growth model came to a halt, resulting in a significant economic slowdown. The effects of the pandemic, including draconian lockdowns and a slowdown in China's economy, also contributed to the decline.
Population Shift and Political Paranoia
China's controversial one-child policy has created a looming demographic winter, with a shrinking working-age population and an increasingly elderly population. This demographic shift puts pressure on the economy and poses challenges for sustaining economic growth. Meanwhile, China's economic growth model, tied to higher-tech industries, aims to create productivity and prevent a demographic-fueled economic slowdown in the future. While Western policies have not been the primary cause of China's economic slowdown, restrictions on foreign investors and due diligence firms have increased due to growing political paranoia and international scrutiny.
For years, we've heard that China is an unstoppable economic engine. In 2023, that changed. One stat says it all: in the third quarter this year, foreign direct investment in China was negative for the first time in modern history.
Today for the holidays we're bringing you another special episode of 1 big thing where we spotlight a leader from within our own newsroom. Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian explains why China's economic miracle has ended, but its power is still growing.
Guests: Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, Axios China reporter and author of "Beijing Rules: China's Quest for Global Influence."
Credits: 1 big thing is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, and Jay Cowit. Music is composed by Alex Sugiura. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can send questions, comments and story ideas as a text or voice memo to Niala at 202-918-4893.