Upside #55 - Digital Sovereignty vs Autarky

This week on Upside – It's a digital sovereignty deeper dive - what does it really mean, Nvidia is up but kinda not, Apple vs CMA - stormy teacup, and Governments Buying AI - which is a a great thing! Yes it is.

With Mads, Lomax, Andreas and Dan.

00:52 – Why Nvidia is “the poster child”
Picks & shovels of AI; outsized share of data-centre capex; sheer scale of valuation and index weight.

01:49 – Numbers that bend the mind
$100B rev $25B net income quarter; growth decelerating (YoY strong, QoQ data-centre +5%) and mostly “priced in.”

04:33 – Europe’s chip toolkit
ASML, STMicro, Infineon, ARM as the homegrown counterweight—and the media’s US-centric bias.

06:07 – Apple vs UK CMA
Interoperability, payments, “Apple tax,” and the tension between competition policy and platform control.

08:05 – When regulation helps
Open banking as a rare win; risk of “fighting the last war” on phones while AI becomes the real battleground.

16:36 – Antitrust lessons for AI
Need smarter, transatlantic, pro-innovation guardrails before AI market power locks in.

18:55 – Creative destruction vs. cops
Markets toppled IBM/Microsoft; you can’t regulate your way to greatness—create conditions to compete.

21:05 – Sovereignty kicks off: US buys 10% of Intel
Equity via CHIPS grants; debate on retroactive terms, national champions, and when government should own.

28:26 – Europe’s long tradition of state help
Airbus, satellites, energy—how “strategic” differs from picking winners.

30:42 – What should be sovereign
Compute/chips, energy, critical minerals, food/health inputs, and space—areas where hands-off fails.

37:12 – UK gov is buying AI (a lot)
Spend surges; Microsoft & Palantir dominate; case for being a “power user” while seeding EU/UK alternatives.

43:54 – Can startups sell to government?
Procurement is the moat for incumbents; call for sandboxes, fast paths, and small experiments.

50:01 – What is digital sovereignty (really)?
Acting without others’ permission; Europe’s dilemma: US defence, China manufacturing, and now US AI.

52:07 – China’s playbook
Back sectors, unleash brutal competition (EVs), let winners emerge—then scale.

57:33 – Follow the money
EU pension funds underweight EU VC; stop funding US dominance if we want sovereignty.

Fast takeaways

* Nvidia remains the bellwether, but the growth rate is normalising at hyperscale.
* Apple vs CMA = overdue competition questions, but don’t fight 2010’s war in 2025 - aim rules at AI.
* Sovereignty ≠ autarky: diversify dependencies, go big on adoption, and grow local apps/infra.
* Procurement reform (sandboxes, smaller tickets) is the cheapest way to catalyse EU/UK AI champions