The Air Show The Transatlantic Evolution
Oct 2, 2025
Brian and Brett dive into the booming transatlantic market, revealing a staggering 75% increase in daily flights over two decades. They explore the impact of joint ventures on competition, noting that just three groups dominate fares. Independent airlines like Icelandair and TAP still navigate this landscape, while the viability of low-cost carriers is questioned. Seasonal shifts in travel and the rise of leisure destinations highlight changing patterns, as they ponder the future of European markets and national carriers.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Transatlantic Market Has Exploded
- Transatlantic capacity rose ~75% from July 2005 to July 2025, reaching over 165,000 seats daily.
- Despite more narrowbodies, average seats per departure increased from 259 to 268, showing market scale growth.
Three Groups Dominate Pricing
- Three immunized joint ventures now account for roughly 82.5% of transatlantic seats when including ETA and SAS.
- That concentration greatly reduces independent competition and shapes pricing across the Atlantic.
Niche Models Survive Outside JVs
- Few independent carriers remain outside the JVs; those that do (Icelandair, Norse, TAP) occupy niche roles or different network strategies.
- Being 'different' (unique hub or feed beyond Europe) helps these carriers avoid direct JV competition.