Sam Roggeveen — Why the US Won't Fight China for Dominance (and What it Means for Australia) [Aus. Policy Series - LIVE]
Apr 2, 2025
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In this engaging discussion, Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, dives deep into the U.S.-China power dynamics and why America may avoid direct conflict with China. He argues for strengthening Australia’s alliance with Indonesia as a strategic priority. The conversation touches on the implications of Australia considering nuclear capabilities and the challenges of adapting military strategies against China's rising influence. Roggeveen also presents his unique 'echidna strategy' for a cost-effective defense approach.
The United States may not confront China for dominance in Asia, prompting Australia to reevaluate its reliance on American security.
Australia should prioritize strengthening its alliance with Indonesia to ensure regional stability and counter potential threats.
The rise of open-source intelligence is shifting the landscape of analysis, challenging the traditional value of classified information in decision-making.
Deep dives
The Changing Global Landscape
The podcast highlights a significant shift in global power dynamics with the rise of China, which has surpassed the United States in economic strength, particularly in purchasing power parity. This change necessitates a reevaluation of military alliances and defence strategies in the Asia-Pacific region. The speaker emphasizes that for the first time, Australia could potentially be without the protection of a great power as the United States grapples with its own interests. This reality prompts a discussion on how Australia can enhance its own defence capabilities to maintain security in the face of these changes.
The Echidna Strategy Explained
The podcast introduces the 'echidna strategy,' proposing that Australia can defend itself without significantly increasing its defence spending. This strategy suggests leveraging Australia's geographical distance from potential threats, primarily China, while fostering a defensive posture that remains non-threatening. The concept involves creating capabilities that allow Australia to defend its northern maritime approaches effectively. This approach aims to deter aggression through a robust yet measured defence policy, preventing unnecessary escalation in regional tensions.
Intelligence and Analysis in National Security
Insights from experiences in Australia's intelligence community reveal that access to classified information is not inherently superior to open-source analysis. The speaker argues that the quality of analysis in open-source intelligence has improved significantly, diminishing the advantage of classified sources. The increasing abundance of information has shifted the focus of intelligence agencies, raising challenges in making informed decisions. The conversation highlights the importance of adapting analysis methods to cope with the overwhelming flow of data available in the digital age.
Future of American Presence in Asia
A pivotal discussion centers on the future of American presence in Asia and the possibility of its withdrawal or power-sharing with China. The speaker outlines several scenarios for the U.S.'s engagement in the region, emphasizing that the decision will hinge on domestic and international perceptions of American strength. The notion that America's self-image as a global leader may compel it to resist relinquishing its position is critically examined. Ultimately, whether America chooses to remain involved or pivot away from Asia will have major implications for regional stability and Australia's security.
The Role of Indonesia in Australian Strategy
The importance of Indonesia as a strategic partner for Australia is underscored, with a focus on preventing a scenario where Indonesia becomes a hostile great power. The podcast argues for prioritizing a strong relationship with Indonesia to maintain regional stability, especially as its economy and geopolitical influence grow. Australia must adapt its approach to align with Indonesia’s aspirations, ensuring it does not face a security threat from its closest neighbor. A closer economic tie is proposed as a means of reinforcing this partnership and preventing geopolitical tensions.
Navigating the Nuclear Debate
The podcast delves into the controversy surrounding nuclear weapons acquisition for Australia, emphasizing that such a decision should consider regional dynamics and the potential for nuclear proliferation among neighbouring countries. The analysis posits that Australia's reliance on American nuclear deterrence may not hold in the future, particularly if other nations, such as Japan and South Korea, choose to pursue their nuclear arsenals. The necessity for a cooperative approach with Indonesia regarding any nuclear ambitions is highlighted to avoid escalating regional tensions. Ultimately, the speaker advocates for a cautious consideration of nuclear strategies while recognizing the complexities involved.
This episode is the sixth instalment of my Australian policy series, recorded live in Sydney on February 26, 2025.
I speak with Sam Roggeveen—Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, and a former senior analyst at the Office of National Assessments—about why the United States won’t fight China for dominance in Asia, and what that means for an Australia long reliant on American protection.
We explore the limits of America’s resolve in Asia, why an alliance with Indonesia should be the top priority of Australian statecraft, whether new technologies like drones are reversing the long-held advantage of the defender, the possibility that Australia might one day acquire nuclear weapons, and how Sam’s “echidna strategy” could let us defend ourselves from a major Asian power without substantially boosting defence spending.
