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On The Market

What Does Trump’s Economy Mean for the Housing Market?

Nov 25, 2024
Matthew Walsh, an economist at Moody’s Analytics specializing in housing market analysis, dives into how economic sentiment influenced the 2024 election results. He discusses the disconnect between strong economic indicators and consumer anxiety, particularly around inflation. Walsh examines the challenges of housing affordability amid high mortgage rates and the impact of tariffs on home prices. Despite inflation cooling, he highlights the significant drops in mortgage rates needed to reach pre-2019 affordability levels and explores potential pathways for the housing market's future.
36:44

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Quick takeaways

  • Economic concerns and inflation significantly influenced the 2024 presidential election, revealing voters' prioritization of personal financial realities over broader economic indicators.
  • The introduction of tariffs is expected to increase construction costs, leading to higher home prices that could further impact housing affordability in the market.

Deep dives

Economic Sentiment and Election Results

The recent election results indicate that economic concerns, particularly inflation and housing affordability, were significant factors influencing voter decisions. Despite positive economic indicators like GDP growth, low unemployment, and rising wages, consumer sentiment surveys reveal a pervasive sense of anxiety regarding everyday expenses. This disconnect suggests that voters prioritize their immediate financial realities over broader economic data, emphasizing the importance of personal experiences with inflation in shaping public opinion. As seen globally, many incumbent parties have faced backlash during similar inflationary periods, signaling a trend that goes beyond just the United States.

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