Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Peter on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?
07:29 - Signs of weakness?
09:31 - The key indicators of weakness
12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?
15:26 - Assessing the savings rate
17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy
20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?
22:00 - Challenges in the banking system
24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal support?
27:11 - Why Berezin thinks the stock market is 50% overvalued
29:26 - Are AI companies in trouble?
35:51 - The long term economic impacts of AI
37:46 - Boosts in inventories: A tipping point to the economy?
40:17 - Berezin's outlook for Fed policy
42:47 - Rate cuts = recession?
45:42 - The state and outlook of the U.S housing market
47:25 - An unsustainable budget outlook
50:44 - Will we see a strengthening of the dollar?
52:19 - An upside for the yen
53:53 - A collective cutting of rates
55:06 - Has globalization run its course?
56:40 - The structural outlook for commodities
58:51 - What should you focus on?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
Top Traders Unplugged