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Macro Voices
MacroVoices #415 Tian Yang: Fiscal, Sisyphus or Hercules
Feb 15, 2024
Tian Yang, CEO of Variant Perception, discusses trading opportunities in various asset classes. They analyze the US economy, fiscal deficits, and government support. They also discuss the recent EIA inventory data for crude oil and the impact of the Fed's intentions on the US dollar and gold. They believe gold is still a strong buy. The chapter concludes with information about the weekly research roundup and sponsors.
01:03:17
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Quick takeaways
- The log periodic power law (LPPL) indicator helps identify market trends and potential trend reversals, as seen in recent LPPL crash climaxes on Palladium and China-linked equities.
- Fiscal deficits in the US economy, depicted through the analogy of Sisyphus rolling a boulder, may have risks due to unusual patterns in government tax receipts and nominal GDP. Monitoring data is crucial to assess the sustainability of fiscal stimulus.
Deep dives
Tian Yang explains the LPPL indicator and its signals
Tian Yang, CEO and Head of Research for Variant Perception, discusses the log periodic power law (LPPL) indicator. LPPL is a model that captures the underlying wave of the market and helps identify the end of a trend. It detects patterns where prices speed up as they exhaust, signaling the potential for a trend reversal. Tian mentions specific examples, such as a recent LPPL crash climax on Palladium and multiple LPPL crash climaxes on China-linked equities. He also highlights trade structures, such as one-by-two call spreads, which can be used to cap downside risk and potentially profit from a squeeze.
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