Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Stuck at 3%
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Nov 4, 2025 Michael Hanson, Senior U.S. and Canada Economist, joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss crucial insights on U.S. inflation trends amid tariff pressures. They highlight the persistent 3% inflation globally and explore how tariffs are driving up U.S. prices, with estimates suggesting core CPI could rise by 1–1.5 percentage points. The conversation touches on the timing of inflation peaks, the contrasting inflation dynamics in the U.S. versus the rest of the world, and the challenges firms face in absorbing these costs. A thought-provoking analysis on policy implications for central banks unfolds.
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Global Core Inflation Stuck Near 3%
- Global core inflation has been stuck around a 3% pace since mid-2023 despite fading supply shocks.
- Sticky services and recent food and energy pressures keep both core and headline near 3%.
US-World Inflation Rotation Emerging
- US inflation is diverging as tariffs boost core goods prices while rest-of-world goods inflation eases.
- Currency moves and limited retaliation explain why the rest of the world lacks the US tariff-driven push.
Services Keep US Core Elevated
- US services inflation remains sticky, contributing to core inflation above 3% despite some indicators showing lower rates.
- The combination of sticky services and tariff pressures makes disinflation slower in the US.