Dive into the volatile world of global economics, where recent tariff announcements are shaking up trade and markets. Discover how the unpredictability of U.S. leadership is frustrating investors and influencing dollar dynamics. The podcast also tackles the evolving relationship between tariffs and inflation, shedding light on historical cases. Gain insights into the resilience of manufacturing and Europe's challenges while exploring high-conviction trading strategies and the intricate trade ties between Germany and Kyrgyzstan. An engaging listen for market enthusiasts!
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Quick takeaways
The perception of the AI tool DeepSeek has shifted to being seen as a minor advancement, positively affecting companies like NVIDIA.
Recent tariff discussions and fluctuations in trade negotiations highlight the importance of focusing on underlying economic health rather than immediate concerns.
Deep dives
Shifting Perspectives on AI Breakthroughs
The discussion highlights a change in perception regarding the AI tool DeepSeek, which was initially considered a major breakthrough. Recently, expert consensus has shifted towards viewing it as a minor advancement, largely due to its reliance on data from the open AI chat GPT model. This change in perspective has resulted in a more bullish outlook for companies like NVIDIA, indicating that while the foundational AI concepts remain positive, they are not as game-changing as initially thought. The evolving narrative suggests that DeepSeek may have been a contributing factor to the potential for new tariffs rather than a primary driver of market movement.
Tariff Postponements and Market Reactions
Recent tariff discussions involving the U.S. and its trading partners, including China, Mexico, and Canada, have seen significant fluctuations. Following a series of discussions, President Trump's administration has officially postponed tariffs on Mexico, with indications that Canadian tariffs may follow suit. This uncertainty has influenced market sentiment, with many anticipating that tariffs could weaken the dollar, mirroring historical volatility seen in 2017. Investors are advised to focus on the underlying economic factors rather than the erratic behavior from trade negotiations, suggesting an overall positive sentiment about the economy despite immediate tariff concerns.
Implications of Tariffs on Inflation and Investments
The potential impact of tariffs on inflation is a critical topic, with tariffs initially thought to have inflationary effects due to increased commodity prices. However, over time, the reality suggests that tariffs may result in a slightly disinflationary trend after their immediate effects have subsided. A significant concern raised is the re-routing of trade flows, making it easier for countries to circumvent tariffs, which complicates their intended impact. Given these complexities, the conversation emphasizes the importance of focusing on the cyclical health of the economy, including improved manufacturing momentum, rather than getting bogged down by the noise of immediate tariff discussions.
Andreas Steno Larsen, founder, and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest news in markets.
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01:46 - Macro Mondays: Global Markets and Trade Wars 3:15 - Deep Sea AI: From Major Breakthrough to Market Fizzle? 04:50 - Trade Wars: Tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada 10:00 - Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Bluff or Real Economic Policy? 13:00 - Crypto Market Crash 15:00 - Possibility of US Capital Gains Tax and A Weaker Dollar? 18:40 - Macro Meets Micro - The Eurodollar 19:50 - European Growth Challenges: Can the EU Compete? 21:30 - High Conviction Themes: Gold, The Dollar, And Manufacturing Cycle 25:00 - How Tariffs Impact Inflation
Music license ID: WJ6TRPVHFD
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