The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 365. Cooling, Not Crashing: Thankful for CRE Bright Spots & A Ground Lease 101
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Nov 26, 2025 The economy is cooling, not crashing, as experts discuss the current macroeconomic landscape. They highlight positive trends in commercial real estate, including the stabilization of interest rates and resilient sectors like industrial and retail. A segment dedicated to ground leases uncovers their mechanics, risks, and a real-world case study reveals how they can impact investment outcomes. Gratitude for bright spots in the industry adds an uplifting tone, even amidst challenges ahead.
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Cooling Not Crashing
- The economy is cooling rather than crashing, with inflation eased but still above target.
- Markets face a fragile soft-landing path under a higher-for-longer rate environment.
Rates Create A Tale Of Two Markets
- Higher-for-longer rates reprice capital and create uneven stress across property types.
- Office faces the worst refinancing and delinquency pressure while industrial, necessity retail, and luxury hospitality remain resilient.
Office Distress Less Severe Than Feared
- Office delinquencies rose but fell short of the most bearish forecasts this year.
- That outcome limited systemic damage but still left office delinquency at record highs.