Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 341: Phil Suttle on Trump's Populism, the Productivity Mystery, and Global Disruption
Jan 16, 2026
Phil Suttle, founder of Suttle Economics and seasoned global economist, dives into the complexities of today's economic landscape. He discusses anomalies in the US labor market, attributing issues to declining immigrant flows. Trump’s populist policies, surprisingly influenced by Elizabeth Warren's ideas, are critically analyzed. Suttle also tackles the productivity mystery, speculating on AI's role, and examines geopolitical risks affecting global business. With sticky inflation on the horizon, he forecasts potential rate rises and the extreme volatility of oil prices.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Immigration-Driven Labor Shock
- The US faces a major negative shock to labor supply driven by a rapid fall in immigrant flows.
- That shock explains falling payrolls despite still-strong GDP indicators, boosting measured productivity temporarily.
Measured Productivity Spike Is Arithmetic
- US GDP appearing strong while employment falls creates a near-term surge in measured productivity.
- That arithmetic boost may be temporary and depends on whether output truly holds as hours decline.
US Productivity Gap With OECD
- The US productivity outperformance versus other OECD countries widened over the last five-six years.
- The gap likely reflects US advantages in organization and investment, but it's not fully explained by recent AI uptake.
