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ElectionWatch: ‘After the convention’ - DNC edition
Aug 27, 2024
Tom McLoughlin, Co-lead of ElectionWatch and CIO Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, delve into the political landscape post-DNC. They discuss the implications of Vice President Harris's nomination, evolving election probabilities, and the significance of polling on voter sentiment. The conversation also highlights economic policy shifts, including proposed tax changes and their potential market impacts. Additionally, they analyze RFK Jr.'s unexpected endorsement of Trump and its ramifications on electoral dynamics.
33:33
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Quick takeaways
- The DNC convention showcased Democratic unity fueled by opposition to Trump and strong support from key voter demographics including young and suburban women.
- Election forecasts indicate a competitive landscape with Kamala Harris having a 40% chance of winning, influenced by significant policy contrasts with Trump regarding taxation and tariffs.
Deep dives
Democratic National Convention Insights
The convention highlighted a sense of unity among Democrats, largely attributed to opposition against former President Trump and the relief surrounding President Biden stepping down from the race. Vice President Kamala Harris has successfully managed to bring together various constituencies, including voters under 30, African-Americans, and college-educated suburban women, which are critical for a Democratic victory. An interesting observation is that early polling from the second congressional district of Nebraska indicates that the Harris-Walz ticket may outperform Trump. This suggests that while Trump's base remains solid, he will need to engage more directly with voters to maintain support.
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