KER Market QuickTake: Is This a Top or a Buying Opportunity in Precious Metals?

Nov 18, 2025

Cory and Shad dive into the recent corrections across precious metals, highlighting a significant drop in junior miners. Despite record margins for major producers, junior stocks are struggling, creating potential buying opportunities. They discuss the implications of upcoming Q4 earnings and the likelihood of a seasonal bounce in Q1. The duo also analyzes recent M&A activity, noting undervalued juniors, while touching on other metals like uranium and lithium. Investors are urged to be selective, with strategies for navigating this volatile market.

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INSIGHT

Juniors Sold Off Much More Than Metals

Precious metals prices are only down ~10–15% but many junior miners plunged 20–40% as momentum traders exited.
Majors and GDX held up far better, showing a divergence between large caps and juniors.

INSIGHT

Q4 Spot Prices Boost Miner Margins

Q4 spot prices (gold ~4,000; silver ~50) create materially higher margins versus Q3 sales prices.
Many junior share prices do not reflect these stronger Q4 margins and are disconnected from fundamentals.

INSIGHT

Growth Upside Lies In Junior Producers

Junior producers offer more upside because they can materially grow production while majors remain largely flat.
Re-rating upside increases if analysts update NPVs to current spot prices and future production profiles.

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In this KER Market Quick Take, Cory Fleck and Shad Marquitz break down the broad correction across precious and base metals and outline where they see opportunity as year-end approaches.

Metals correction: Gold and silver are only ~10–15% off highs, but many miners - especially juniors - are down 20–40% as momentum traders and generalists step aside.
Majors vs. juniors: Large-cap producers (e.g., Newmont, Fresnillo) are holding up relatively well. Junior producers and developers have sold off sharply, creating what Shad sees as the best value.
Q4 margins & Q1 setup: With gold near $4,000 and silver around $50, producers are enjoying record margins. Shad sees a strong setup for a Q1 seasonal bounce as earnings land.
M&A & valuations: Recent takeovers (like Probe) came at low valuations. Many juniors still don’t reflect $3,500–$4,000 gold or $40–$50 silver in their NPVs.
Financing overhang: Cory highlights heavy financing activity and incoming 4-month holds as key near-term headwinds, reinforcing the need for selectivity.
Other metals:
- Uranium: Spot drift to mid-$70s dampens sentiment.
- Copper: Stable near $5/lb; producers outperforming the metal.
- Lithium: ETF rebound—nearly doubled since April lows.
Positioning outlook: Shad is accumulating select juniors into weakness; Cory prefers patience until clearer uptrends form, though he sees potential catalysts from policy shifts or a major new discovery.

Stocks & ETFs Mentioned: GDX, GLD, SLV, PSLV, COPX, LIT, Newmont ($NEM), Fresnillo ($FRES), Silver X, Impact Silver, Guanajuato Silver, Avino Silver & Gold.

Let us know your thoughts on the KER Market QuickTakes - Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com

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Investment disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.