In this KER Market Quick Take, Cory Fleck and Shad Marquitz break down the broad correction across precious and base metals and outline where they see opportunity as year-end approaches.
- Metals correction: Gold and silver are only ~10–15% off highs, but many miners - especially juniors - are down 20–40% as momentum traders and generalists step aside.
- Majors vs. juniors: Large-cap producers (e.g., Newmont, Fresnillo) are holding up relatively well. Junior producers and developers have sold off sharply, creating what Shad sees as the best value.
- Q4 margins & Q1 setup: With gold near $4,000 and silver around $50, producers are enjoying record margins. Shad sees a strong setup for a Q1 seasonal bounce as earnings land.
- M&A & valuations: Recent takeovers (like Probe) came at low valuations. Many juniors still don’t reflect $3,500–$4,000 gold or $40–$50 silver in their NPVs.
- Financing overhang: Cory highlights heavy financing activity and incoming 4-month holds as key near-term headwinds, reinforcing the need for selectivity.
- Other metals:
- Uranium: Spot drift to mid-$70s dampens sentiment.
- Copper: Stable near $5/lb; producers outperforming the metal.
- Lithium: ETF rebound—nearly doubled since April lows.
- Positioning outlook: Shad is accumulating select juniors into weakness; Cory prefers patience until clearer uptrends form, though he sees potential catalysts from policy shifts or a major new discovery.
Stocks & ETFs Mentioned: GDX, GLD, SLV, PSLV, COPX, LIT, Newmont ($NEM), Fresnillo ($FRES), Silver X, Impact Silver, Guanajuato Silver, Avino Silver & Gold.
Let us know your thoughts on the KER Market QuickTakes - Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com
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