Garrett Goggin, a seasoned gold analyst and founder of The Golden Portfolio, dives into the current dynamics of the gold market. He discusses the implications of skyrocketing U.S. debt and foreign central banks shifting away from treasuries. Garrett highlights the undervalued potential in gold mining companies and his focus on high-grade exploration projects. He underscores the importance of management quality and offers insights into portfolio strategies, including equal weighting and the benefits of royalty investments. The conversation also touches on the future role of silver in the market.
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insights INSIGHT
Gold Market Structural Shift
The gold market is different this cycle due to massive U.S. debt and global shifts away from treasuries.
Foreign central banks and trade partners are buying and holding gold, changing supply-demand dynamics.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Avoid Treasuries When Dollar Is Being Devalued
Avoid long-duration treasuries if the dollar is being devalued and the Fed and Treasury enact QE and yield-curve control.
Consider gold exposure as a hedge when sovereign debt rises and foreigners reduce treasury holdings.
insights INSIGHT
ETF Flows Show Missing Masses
ETF flows show limited retail and institutional participation so far in this gold bull.
GLD and GDX shares outstanding are well below prior peaks, signalling the masses haven't entered yet.
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Stijn Schmitz welcomes Garrett Goggin to the show. Garrett Goggin is CFA, CMT, MBA, GOLD ANALYST, & Founder of The Golden Portfolio. In this in-depth discussion, Goggin provides a comprehensive overview of the current gold market, highlighting significant global financial shifts and unprecedented economic conditions driving gold's value. Goggin argues that the current gold market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, citing massive U.S. debt (now at $37 trillion), foreign central banks moving away from U.S. treasuries, and increasing gold purchases. He believes the gold market has substantial room for growth, noting that average investors currently have less than 1% of their assets invested in gold. The analyst is particularly bullish on gold mining companies, especially developers with undervalued assets. He emphasizes finding opportunities where market valuations significantly lag the intrinsic net asset value (NAV) of mining projects. Goggin's investment strategy focuses on high-grade exploration projects, developers near production, and royalty companies, which he considers the lowest-risk gold investment strategy. Management quality is crucial in Goggin's analysis. He looks for executives who create shareholder value, avoid excessive dilution, and have a track record of building successful mining operations. His portfolio approach involves equal-weighting investments across multiple holdings, allowing winners to naturally grow in portfolio allocation. Regarding market sentiment, Goggin believes the "masses aren't here yet" in the gold market. He anticipates institutional investors will be "drawn kicking and screaming" into gold as traditional assets become overvalued. He's especially interested in the potential silver market, which he sees as currently undervalued relative to gold. Goggin's Golden Portfolio, which includes royalty investments and developer/explorer positions, has reportedly achieved impressive returns, with his GPIV product up 500% in two years. He remains confident that significant value opportunities exist in the gold mining sector, driven by fundamental economic shifts and undervaluation of quality mining assets.
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