Garrett Goggin: Debt Explosion Fueling Gold’s Epic Rise

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Oct 3, 2025

Garrett Goggin, a seasoned gold analyst and founder of The Golden Portfolio, dives into the current dynamics of the gold market. He discusses the implications of skyrocketing U.S. debt and foreign central banks shifting away from treasuries. Garrett highlights the undervalued potential in gold mining companies and his focus on high-grade exploration projects. He underscores the importance of management quality and offers insights into portfolio strategies, including equal weighting and the benefits of royalty investments. The conversation also touches on the future role of silver in the market.

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INSIGHT

Gold Market Structural Shift

The gold market is different this cycle due to massive U.S. debt and global shifts away from treasuries.
Foreign central banks and trade partners are buying and holding gold, changing supply-demand dynamics.

ADVICE

Avoid Treasuries When Dollar Is Being Devalued

Avoid long-duration treasuries if the dollar is being devalued and the Fed and Treasury enact QE and yield-curve control.
Consider gold exposure as a hedge when sovereign debt rises and foreigners reduce treasury holdings.

INSIGHT

ETF Flows Show Missing Masses

ETF flows show limited retail and institutional participation so far in this gold bull.
GLD and GDX shares outstanding are well below prior peaks, signalling the masses haven't entered yet.

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Stijn Schmitz welcomes Garrett Goggin to the show. Garrett Goggin is CFA, CMT, MBA, GOLD ANALYST, & Founder of The Golden Portfolio. In this in-depth discussion, Goggin provides a comprehensive overview of the current gold market, highlighting significant global financial shifts and unprecedented economic conditions driving gold’s value. Goggin argues that the current gold market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, citing massive U.S. debt (now at $37 trillion), foreign central banks moving away from U.S. treasuries, and increasing gold purchases.

Garrett believes the gold market has substantial room for growth, noting that average investors currently have less than 1% of their assets invested in gold. The analyst is particularly bullish on gold mining companies, especially developers with undervalued assets. He emphasizes finding opportunities where market valuations significantly lag the intrinsic net asset value (NAV) of mining projects. Goggin’s investment strategy focuses on high-grade exploration projects, developers near production, and royalty companies, which he considers the lowest-risk gold investment strategy. Management quality is crucial in Goggin’s analysis. He looks for executives who create shareholder value, avoid excessive dilution, and have a track record of building successful mining operations.

His portfolio approach involves equal-weighting investments across multiple holdings, allowing winners to naturally grow in portfolio allocation. Regarding market sentiment, Goggin believes the “masses aren’t here yet” in the gold market. He anticipates institutional investors will be “drawn kicking and screaming” into gold as traditional assets become overvalued.

He’s especially interested in the potential silver market, which he sees as currently undervalued relative to gold. Goggin’s Golden Portfolio, which includes royalty investments and developer/explorer positions, has reportedly achieved impressive returns, with his GPIV product up 500% in two years. He remains confident that significant value opportunities exist in the gold mining sector, driven by fundamental economic shifts and undervaluation of quality mining assets.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:55 – Garrett’s Background
00:01:46 – Current Gold Price Analysis
00:06:28 – Quantitative Easing Impacts
00:10:32 – Historical Gold Boom Parallels
00:13:59 – Grasberg Mine Slippage Issues
00:16:24 – Large Gold Miners Evaluation
00:19:14 – Miner Investment Criteria
00:24:15 – Royalty Companies Advantages
00:27:28 – Management Quality Assessment
00:31:26 – Portfolio Allocation Strategies
00:34:40 – Silver Market Outlook
00:39:41 – Golden Portfolio Overview
00:40:50 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://GoldenPortfolio.com
X: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin

Garrett Goggin’s career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.

However, his fascination lay in gold, silver, and commodities. In contrast to the unpredictability of longer-term investments, these markets offered a sense of control. Goggin’s conviction was that mastery of commodity markets wasn’t contingent on luck but knowledge.

His quest for gold and silver took him across continents, visiting numerous mines and conversing with their overseers. For over fifteen years, he partnered with esteemed research entities Gold Stock Analyst and Stansberry Research, serving as a precious metals analyst.

A respected figure at prestigious gold conferences such as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada’s (PDAC) Toronto event and Denver Gold Show Europe in Zurich, Goggin is a preferred resource for leading gold and silver developers due to his insightful research.

Credentialed with Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Market Technician (CMT) designations, Goggin’s educational background includes MS and MBA degrees from Babson College, renowned for its business programs.