Margin of Safety vs. Upside in Mining Picks

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Garrett Goggin to the show. Garrett Goggin is CFA, CMT, MBA, GOLD ANALYST, & Founder of The Golden Portfolio. In this in-depth discussion, Goggin provides a comprehensive overview of the current gold market, highlighting significant global financial shifts and unprecedented economic conditions driving gold’s value. Goggin argues that the current gold market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, citing massive U.S. debt (now at $37 trillion), foreign central banks moving away from U.S. treasuries, and increasing gold purchases.

Garrett believes the gold market has substantial room for growth, noting that average investors currently have less than 1% of their assets invested in gold. The analyst is particularly bullish on gold mining companies, especially developers with undervalued assets. He emphasizes finding opportunities where market valuations significantly lag the intrinsic net asset value (NAV) of mining projects. Goggin’s investment strategy focuses on high-grade exploration projects, developers near production, and royalty companies, which he considers the lowest-risk gold investment strategy. Management quality is crucial in Goggin’s analysis. He looks for executives who create shareholder value, avoid excessive dilution, and have a track record of building successful mining operations.

His portfolio approach involves equal-weighting investments across multiple holdings, allowing winners to naturally grow in portfolio allocation. Regarding market sentiment, Goggin believes the “masses aren’t here yet” in the gold market. He anticipates institutional investors will be “drawn kicking and screaming” into gold as traditional assets become overvalued.

He’s especially interested in the potential silver market, which he sees as currently undervalued relative to gold. Goggin’s Golden Portfolio, which includes royalty investments and developer/explorer positions, has reportedly achieved impressive returns, with his GPIV product up 500% in two years. He remains confident that significant value opportunities exist in the gold mining sector, driven by fundamental economic shifts and undervaluation of quality mining assets.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:55 – Garrett’s Background
00:01:46 – Current Gold Price Analysis
00:06:28 – Quantitative Easing Impacts
00:10:32 – Historical Gold Boom Parallels
00:13:59 – Grasberg Mine Slippage Issues
00:16:24 – Large Gold Miners Evaluation
00:19:14 – Miner Investment Criteria
00:24:15 – Royalty Companies Advantages
00:27:28 – Management Quality Assessment
00:31:26 – Portfolio Allocation Strategies
00:34:40 – Silver Market Outlook
00:39:41 – Golden Portfolio Overview
00:40:50 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://GoldenPortfolio.com
X: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin

Garrett Goggin’s career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.

Credentialed with Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Market Technician (CMT) designations, Goggin’s educational background includes MS and MBA degrees from Babson College, renowned for its business programs.