Can Ukraine and Europe Win Alone? with Gustav Gressel and Franz-Stefan Gady
Feb 25, 2025
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Gustav Gressel, an expert on Russia and defense policy, and Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow and defense consultant, dive into the complexities of the Ukraine conflict. They discuss the implications of U.S. negotiations with Russia excluding Kyiv, raising concerns about Ukraine’s future. The duo highlights the urgent need for Europe to enhance its military readiness amidst fears of potential U.S. withdrawal. The talk also touches on Europe’s evolving defense strategies and the prospects of peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, navigating the intricacies of international diplomacy.
U.S. support is vital for Ukraine's military sustainability, leaving uncertainty over its defense capabilities without continued American involvement.
European leaders face significant challenges in preparing defense industries to support Ukraine amid concerns of diminishing U.S. military backing.
Despite uncertainties, Ukrainian soldiers maintain high morale and commitment to fight, although strategic implications loom if support wanes.
Deep dives
Impact of US Support on Ukraine's Military Efforts
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is critically influenced by the levels of support from the United States. President Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept any imposed deals, and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. support raises significant concerns about Ukraine's military sustainability. As U.S. negotiations with Russia exclude Kyiv, it becomes increasingly crucial for Ukraine to ensure that it is not left to face Russia alone. Moreover, the morale and willingness of Ukrainian soldiers to fight could drastically diminish without U.S. backing, creating a precarious situation for Ukraine's continued defense efforts.
Current Battlefield Dynamics
On the front lines, Russian forces maintain an offensive posture, taking advantage of their manpower superiority, although their equipment advantage is narrowing due to sustained losses. Key areas of focus include Pokrovsk and the northeast region of Kharkiv, where Russian forces are attempting to extend their footholds. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate resilience, leveraging their drone capabilities which account for a significant number of casualties inflicted on Russian troops. This ongoing struggle reflects a complex situation on the battlefield where momentum can dramatically shift, hinging on various operational factors.
Challenges of European Support
The feasibility of Europe stepping in to fill the potential gaps left by reduced U.S. involvement is a significant concern. European leaders face the dual challenge of preparing their defense industries to sustain a prolonged conflict while grappling with the uncertainty of U.S. policy shifts under the Trump administration. There's an ongoing debate about whether Europe can sufficiently prepare and support Ukraine militarily without U.S. backing, which could lead to dire consequences for European security as well. This situation demands urgent contemplation of the role of Europe in the fight, alongside the realization that European unity has historically relied on American involvement.
Morale and the Ukrainian Resolve
Despite the looming uncertainties and the potential exclusion of U.S. support, the morale of Ukrainian troops at the front remains relatively high. Soldiers express a steadfast commitment to continue the fight irrespective of external support, focusing primarily on inflicting casualties on Russian forces. However, leaders in Kyiv express concerns about broader strategic implications should they perceive a diminishing reliance on U.S. and European support. The political dynamics at play could lead to a critical shift in morale and operational effectiveness, straining Ukraine's military capacity even further.
Future Outlook and Strategic Implications
The future of Ukraine's fight against Russia remains uncertain, heavily influenced by both material factors and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The podcast highlights a potential 'slow deterioration' of Ukraine's position if external support wanes, emphasizing the dire need for continued military aid. However, both Franz and Gustav suggest that while the situation is dire, it is not yet catastrophic, and Ukraine still has the capacity to inflict damage on Russian forces. A reevaluation of support and strategic objectives from the U.S. and Europe could dictate whether Ukraine has a chance to negotiate from a position of strength or ultimately faces a weakened state.
The Trump administration began negotiations with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia last week, and its exclusion of both Kyiv and its European backers from the table cast doubt on the viability of any potential settlement. At the same time, it is far from certain that the Ukrainians can continue their war efforts without the United States’ support, even if Europe steps up its support in the months ahead.
This episode of Brussels Sprouts, recorded on the 3rd anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is joined by Gustav Gressel and Franz-Stephan Gady.
Franz-Stefan Gady is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Defense Program at CNAS and the founder of Gady Consulting.
Gustav Gressel is an expert on Russia, Eastern Europe, and defense policy at the National Defense Academy in Vienna.
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