Hold Your Fire! What Next for Iran?
Jan 16, 2026
Ali Vaez, Iran Director at the International Crisis Group, dives deep into the explosive protests sweeping across Iran, fueled by anger against the regime’s brutality. He sheds light on the deadly crackdown amidst an information blackout and the challenges protesters face. Vaez discusses the limitations of potential U.S. military actions, debates over political transformation, and the role of key figures like Reza Pahlavi. The conversation uncovers the crossroads between economic grievances and calls for a constitutional referendum, revealing a nation on the brink of change.
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Brutal Crackdown And Information Blackout
- The regime used an "iron fist" crackdown and an information blackout to suppress protests.
- Ali Vaez says the regime's admitted 2,000–3,000 deaths likely undercount the true toll and chilled the movement.
Widespread Desperation Fuels Protests
- These protests cut across society because the regime has failed economically, environmentally and in services.
- Ali Vaez argues the convergence of broad despair made this unrest nationwide and unprecedented.
Post-War Angst Intensified Unrest
- External threats after the 12-day war heightened the regime's existential fear and public anger.
- Ali Vaez says that fear-plus-anger combination made this protest wave unique.