The Great Hydrogen Reset — Is It Germany's Turn? Ep176: Eva Schmid
Sep 11, 2024
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In this insightful discussion, expert Eva Schmid, Director of Hydrogen and Synthetic Energy Carriers at DENA, dives deep into Germany's ambitious green hydrogen initiatives. She analyzes how Germany is strategically replacing coal and nuclear power, despite geopolitical energy challenges. Schmid discusses the evolving hydrogen production targets, the importance of international partnerships, and the economic implications of hydrogen as a climate solution. She also addresses the cost complexities and the essential role hydrogen plays in ensuring energy resilience.
Germany is aggressively pursuing a hydrogen strategy to bolster energy resilience following the significant impacts of the Ukraine crisis.
The ambitious target of generating 10 gigawatts of electrolyzer capacity by 2030 highlights Germany's urgent need for sustainable energy solutions.
Concerns about the economic viability and competitive pricing of hydrogen underscore the necessity for transparent policy communication and effective infrastructure investments.
Deep dives
The Current Hydrogen Landscape
The ongoing discourse around hydrogen, especially in Germany, centers on its potential role as a backup energy source during periods of low electricity supply. Despite optimistic forecasts, the real cost of hydrogen production is likely to be much higher than the projections suggest. This has led to a critical reevaluation, as stakeholders come to terms with the need for a more realistic approach to hydrogen's economics and its future role in decarbonization strategies. The fundamental understanding is that transitioning to affordable hydrogen won’t be an immediate outcome, and as a result, many actors may seek alternative solutions for reducing carbon emissions.
Germany's Ambitious Hydrogen Targets
Germany's hydrogen strategy aims to generate 10 gigawatts of electrolyzer capacity by 2030, doubling its original target set in 2020, which reflects the urgency following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This goal, however, represents a significant increase considering Germany's current power demand of about 50 gigawatts, as it seeks to fulfill nearly 3 million tons of hydrogen production. Yet, projections suggest that by 2045, hydrogen demand could escalate to as high as 18 million tons, raising questions about land availability and the feasibility of producing such quantities domestically. As a result, Germany plans to source a substantial portion of its hydrogen needs through imports, indicating a heavy reliance on international partnerships and logistics.
Challenges of Hydrogen Import Infrastructure
The implementation of an effective hydrogen import strategy in Germany includes extensive investments in infrastructure, with expectations of spending between 30 to 60 billion euros by 2030 on hydrogen imports alone. Plans for up to 8,000 kilometers of hydrogen pipelines by 2045 and utilizing various forms of hydrogen transport such as ammonia and liquid hydrogen further emphasize the ambitious scale of this strategy. There are additional concerns about the economic viability of these projects, given that hydrogen is currently much more expensive than its fossil fuel counterparts, which could stifle investment and consumer interest. As policymakers grapple with pricing and distribution challenges, the viability of maintaining such extensive infrastructure will depend on close monitoring of market dynamics and technological advancements in hydrogen production and transport.
Germany's Hydrogen Policy Dynamics
Recent adjustments in Germany's hydrogen policies indicate a need for constant evaluation and adaptation amidst evolving economic realities. The German government has already modified its previous hydrogen support mechanisms in response to budget constraints and criticisms of ineffective strategies. With various scandals and criticisms from industry groups regarding lagging infrastructural developments, the political landscape surrounding hydrogen is becoming increasingly complex. This evolving situation underscores a vital need for transparent communication about the goals, expectations, and challenges involved in harnessing hydrogen as part of a broader energy transition strategy.
The Future of Hydrogen in Decarbonization
Hydrogen's role in achieving net-zero emissions remains contentious, as it potentially diverts attention from more immediate renewables-based electrification solutions. Alongside the push for electrification, hydrogen is often discussed in terms of its ability to stabilize energy supply and enhance resilience within the energy system. However, the economics of green hydrogen production raises critical questions about long-term viability and competitive pricing against conventional energy sources. As stakeholders assess the contributions of hydrogen to decarbonization, the debate will likely hinge on its ability to coexist with and complement existing and emergent technologies, rather than replace them outright.
Germany is one of the most bullish countries in the world on clean/green hydrogen. The home of the Energiewende is not just one of the most committed countries in the world to reaching net zero, it is of course a highly industrialised nation with a very energy-intensive economy. As if that were not enough, it had one third of its energy supply yanked out from under it as a result of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Green hydrogen has become one of the mainstays of efforts to keep the lights on as the country replaces nuclear and coal power with wind and solar, and also of efforts to replace cheap Russian gas in power generation and industry. But can green hydrogen possibly live up to expectations?
This week on Cleaning Up, Michael Liebreich is joined by someone who works at the heart of Germany’s hydrogen policy-making machine: Eva Schmid is Director of Hydrogen and Synthetic Energy Carriers at DENA, the German Energy Agency, a think tank that works with the German government to deliver its energy strategy. As you’ll see she has a clear-eyed sense of what hydrogen can and can’t be expected to do, and a focus on using it to protect the resilience of the German economy.
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Links & more:
DENA, The German Energy Agency: https://www.dena.de/en/home/
Germany's National Hydrogen Strategy, 2023: https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/EN/Publikationen/Energie/national-hydrogen-strategy-update.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2