Jens Stoltenberg: Putin, peace talks, and missiles (Part 1)
Sep 17, 2024
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Jens Stoltenberg, the outgoing NATO Secretary General, shares his insights on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He suggests that no level of NATO support will provoke Putin into attacking member states. Stoltenberg also advocates for Ukraine to consider firing long-range missiles into Russia, hinting at U.S. hesitancy in the decision-making process. He emphasizes Ukraine's autonomy in negotiating peace with Russia, revealing complex strategies and implications for future military operations.
Stoltenberg emphasizes that empowering Ukraine with long-range missiles is crucial to deter Putin and maintain NATO's strategic advantage.
The timeline for peace negotiations is heavily influenced by external pressures, even as Stoltenberg underscores Ukraine's sovereignty in the decision-making process.
Deep dives
NATO's Stance on Long-Range Weapons in Ukraine
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has articulated the alliance's position on allowing Ukraine to utilize long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia. He emphasized that not permitting such actions could result in a greater risk, with the potential for President Putin to gain a strategic advantage if Ukraine does not have the necessary tools to impact the battlefield. Stoltenberg made it clear that supplying weapons to Ukraine, even if used against Russian targets, does not equate to NATO's direct involvement in the conflict. As debates among allies continue, Stoltenberg supports lifting restrictions on military equipment to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities.
Evaluating Ukraine's Military Operations
Stoltenberg assessed the ongoing military developments in the Kursk region, noting that Ukraine has achieved several operational goals despite the unpredictability of war. While Ukraine's actions have boosted the morale of its forces and caused disruptions for Russia, challenges persist as the Russian military continues its assaults inside Ukrainian territory. The Operations' effectiveness will likely be judged during potential future peace talks, suggesting that such maneuvers aim to exert leverage over Russia. However, the Ukrainian capability to sustain these operations is complicated by their inability to match Russia's troop reinforcements.
Concerns Over Negotiated Peace Talks
The conversation about the time for negotiated peace between Ukraine and Russia raises complex issues regarding NATO's involvement and interest in the conflict's resolution. Stoltenberg asserted that when Putin recognizes he cannot achieve victory on the battlefield, he may be more inclined to enter negotiations; however, this view may not align with the urgency other nations feel to resolve the conflict quickly. Discussions surrounding peace talks often overlook Ukrainian interests, as there is increasing pressure from Western allies to continue arming Ukraine while seeking an advantageous position before the winter sets in. The nuanced dynamics indicate that while peace discussions might officially hinge on Ukraine's decisions, external pressures are likely to influence the timeline and conditions for any potential negotiations.
In an exclusive interview with The Times, outgoing-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appears to suggest he believe there is no level of support the alliance could give Ukraine that would goad Vladimir Putin to attack one of NATO's members. He hints that he supports the firing of Western long-range missiles into Russia by Ukraine, a plan apparently being held up by Joe Biden amid suggestions by Putin that it would be an act of war by NATO. Stoltenberg also insists it will be solely up to Ukraine to decide when to come to the negotiating table with Russia. So what is the meaning behind the messages? The Times' Defence Editor, Larisa Brown, joins the World in 10 to analyse Stoltenberg's thoughts.
This is episode one of two that will analyse this exclusive interview with Jens Stoltenberg. Episode two, on the immediate future of NATO and the risks it faces, will be published tomorrow.
The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists.