UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'What difference does it make?'
7 snips
Sep 16, 2025 The podcast dives into the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions and the anticipated rate cuts, examining the potential economic impact. It also discusses consumer behavior and retail data's role in shaping the economy. In another segment, complexities within the UK labor market are explored, highlighting challenges in data interpretation and recent improvements in real incomes. Additionally, the effects of international supply chain disruptions and German business sentiment are analyzed.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Confirmations Likely Irrelevant To Rate Move
- The confirmations of Fed Governor Cook and CEA Chair Miran are unlikely to change the expected policy outcome.
- Markets already expect a rate cut and a weak labour market does not block that move.
Rate Cuts vs Policy Uncertainty
- A rate cut may have limited effect if policy uncertainty, not credit cost, restrains activity.
- The middle-aged middle-class consumer shows low unemployment fear and can sustain spending via savings and credit.
Watch Consumer Data For Recession Signals
- Watch US consumer and retail sales data for signs a recession might be avoided.
- Focus on middle-class spending, which tends to remain steady despite lower real income growth.