Odd Lots

Jim Millstein on the Massive Risks of Any 'Mar-a-Lago Accord'

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Mar 24, 2025
Jim Millstein, co-chair of Guggenheim Securities and a debt restructuring expert, dives deep into the potential consequences of President Trump's trade strategies. He highlights the massive risks tied to the proposed 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' and discusses its implications for market dynamics. Millstein also examines the complexities of U.S. debt management, the historical shifts in manufacturing, and the possibility of re-privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, urging a cautious approach to economic revival amidst fiscal challenges.
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INSIGHT

Mar-a-Lago Accord Goals

  • The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" seeks to weaken the dollar and boost US manufacturing.
  • It aims to incentivize foreign investment in US treasuries while using tariffs and security guarantees as leverage.
INSIGHT

US Debt Problem

  • US federal debt equals GDP, with deficits at 7% and economic growth around 2%.
  • Interest payments are the second largest federal spending category, creating a potential debt crisis.
INSIGHT

Century Bond Proposal

  • The Mar-a-Lago Accord proposes exchanging short-term treasuries for century bonds.
  • This aims to lower US debt costs and reduce refinancing risk, incentivized by tariffs and security guarantees.
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