Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas 335 | Andrew Jaffe on Models, Probability, and the Universe
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Nov 10, 2025 
Andrew Jaffe, an expert in astrophysics and cosmology, shares insights on the nature of scientific models and probability. He argues that models are crucial for understanding the universe, illustrating concepts using examples like the London tube map. The discussion includes comparing large language models to human reasoning, the merits of Bayesian analysis in addressing Hume's problem of induction, and the ongoing tensions in measuring the Hubble constant. Jaffe also delves into quantum mechanics, entropy, and how our existence influences cosmological theories.
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Models Are Stories That Enable Understanding
- Models are stories about the world that let us navigate and predict outcomes.
- A model can be imperfect yet extremely useful for specific questions, like the London tube map.
Induction Needs Probabilities, Not Certainty
- Induction requires probabilistic reasoning because observations never yield certainty.
- We compare models by asking which is more probable given the data and background information.
Bootstrap Knowledge With Bayesian Updating
- Use Bayesian updating to bootstrap knowledge from modest priors and new data.
- Start with a realistic prior and update probabilities as evidence accumulates instead of seeking absolute proofs.
