The AI Policy Podcast China's EUV Manhattan Project and Export Control Mythbusting with Chris McGuire
10 snips
Dec 22, 2025 
Chris McGuire, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former National Security Council official, dives deep into the complexities of AI and semiconductor export controls. He unpacks China's EUV prototype, emphasizing the vast supply chains and challenges in true indigenization. The conversation critiques misconceptions about export controls, assessing their impact on U.S. firms and the reality of Chinese chip advancements. With myth-busting flair, Chris reveals how narratives shape perceptions and the strategic implications of U.S.-China tech competition.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
EUV Is Hardest To Replicate
- EUV machines are the most complicated machines ever built and therefore the hardest for China to indigenize.
- Even possessing a prototype assembled from smuggled parts is far from matching ASML's production, yields, and scale.
Copies Don't Equal Indigenous Supply Chains
- Assembling a machine from imported ASML components is not equivalent to indigenizing its full supply chain.
- China can gain knowledge from copies, but making reliable machines at scale remains a much larger challenge.
Old Machines, Bad Yields
- China earlier obtained many DUV and other older machines but still cannot match yields and production quality.
- Poor domestic replicas cause dreadful yields at SMIC and keep China behind commercially viable production.