HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami: How government job growth killed a July rate cut
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Jul 4, 2025 
In this discussion, Logan Mohtashami, a seasoned lead analyst renowned for his housing market expertise, dives into the latest jobs report and its unintended consequences on Fed rate cuts. He humorously highlights the irony of a strong government job sector dampening hopes for lower rates. The conversation touches on rising mortgage rates linked to economic changes and the crucial need for weak data to trigger rate reductions. Additionally, they explore the recent surge in home purchase applications, underscoring the importance of real-time data in understanding market trends.
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Government Jobs Skew Job Report
- Government job growth, especially state and local teachers, boosted the July jobs report unexpectedly.
- This distorted the data and killed the possibility of a Fed rate cut in July.
Residential Construction Decline Indicator
- Residential construction jobs slightly declined, indicative of no growth in that sector.
- Construction slowdown often precedes recessions, so it is a key economic indicator to watch.
Purchase Applications Trending Up
- Purchase application data has seen nine straight weeks of double-digit growth, rebounding from very low levels.
- This trend signals a nascent improvement in housing demand but does not imply an immediate sales boom.