Michael Mackelvie Podcast Untangling a Quarterback - Projecting QB Success and Adjusted Efficiency with Kevin Cole
Sep 15, 2025
In a deep dive with Kevin Cole, a former Senior Data Scientist at Pro Football Focus and analytics guru behind 'Unexpected Points,' they explore the complexities of quarterback performance. Kevin unpacks situational success and the impact of environment on QBs, using Brock Purdy as a case study. He discusses adjusted QB efficiency rankings and when quarterbacks become overrated. They also address historical shifts in expectations and the strategic value of drafting QBs, shedding light on how context shapes evaluation.
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Draft Bias Distorts QB Evaluation
- Draft position doesn't strongly predict quarterback efficiency but it does predict how long teams will keep them.
- Later-round QBs who play likely have positive signals (practice, film) absent in others.
Game Reps Are Irreplaceable
- Game conditions and practice don't substitute for each other, so many capable QBs never get true game looks.
- Undrafted players make 30–40% of NFL snaps across positions, showing talent exists outside the draft.
Synergy Can Inflate Or Deflate QBs
- Weapons and offensive synergy can amplify a QB's value beyond additive effects, creating big swings year-to-year.
- Much year-to-year QB variance remains unexplained and hard to predict.