In this enlightening discussion, sociologist Samo Burja explores 'long history', arguing that complex societies existed long before agriculture. He challenges historical assumptions, citing groundbreaking archaeological finds like Göbekli Tepe. Burja examines the cyclical nature of civilizations, warning about the risks of overextended governments and economic dependencies, while drawing lessons from past collapses. The episode also tackles the pressing issue of declining fertility rates and its potential impact on society. A thought-provoking dive into what shapes civilizations!
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Ancient Civilizations Predate Agriculture
Human civilization is far older than traditionally believed, with complex societies predating agriculture by thousands of years.
Monumental sites like Göbekli Tepe, 11,500 years old, challenge the linear view of civilization emerging post-agriculture.
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Conventional Archaeology Limits Progress
Academic consensus on history progresses very slowly due to funding, empirical focus, and career incentives favoring conventional theories.
Hypothesis-driven archaeology with better funding could uncover many new ancient civilizations and reshape history.
insights INSIGHT
History Cycles Through Rise and Fall
History shows cyclical rises and falls of civilizations instead of continuous progress.
We might be on the cusp of rapid growth or headed toward stagnation and collapse like previous civilizations.
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Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talks with Samo Burja on "long history" - the thesis that human civilization is far older than believed, with complex societies predating agriculture by millennia. It examines why civilizations rise and fall, and implications for preventing our own collapse.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
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Long History Thesis
Human civilization is much older than believed - complex societies existed before agriculture
Göbekli Tepe (11,500 years old) features monumental construction 1,000 years before earliest agriculture
Academic consensus moves slowly; archaeologists find what they expect to find
Why Civilizations Fall
Pattern 1: Military overextension and fiscal collapse (like Soviet Union)
Pattern 2: Complex trade network breakdown (Bronze Age collapse example)
History isn't linear progress - it's cycles of rise, stagnation, and fall
Modern Implications
We may not reach the singularity - could face our own stagnation period
Military overextension is a current US risk
China and US are 80-90% similar despite perceived differences
Preventing Collapse
Diversify beyond university monoculture - generate more "live players"
Invest in novel energy sources and government experimentation
Address fertility crisis (affects all societies regardless of politics)
Avoid rationalizing decline as environmental success
Historical Lessons
Ancient societies had sophisticated "social technologies" we've lost
Study history for positive examples, not just cautionary tales
Human nature and organizational capacity remain largely unexplored
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