“History Comes In Patterns” Neil Howe: Civil War, Market Crashes, and The Fourth Turning | PBD Podcast | Ep. 441
Jul 17, 2024
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Author Neil Howe discusses the 'Fourth Turning' theory and its impact on societal change, exploring generational cycles in American history, generation archetypes, LGBTQ influence, wealth transfer, state succession, tribalism, and the evolution of faith.
The concept of the fourth turning involves cyclical societal reshaping through fear-driven upheavals and generational archetypes.
Generational biographies shape societal values and norms through distinct turnings from high to crisis, impacting social behavior.
Transition through crisis to regeneration in the fourth turning emphasizes unity, tradition, and long-term planning for societal progress.
Deep dives
The Fourth Turning as a Cycle of History
The concept of the fourth turning is explored as a cyclical process in history where major upheavals reshape civic institutions and social order. This process typically involves high levels of fear and conflict to compel societal transformation, leading to external and internal conflicts. Each turning from high to crisis to regeneration involves distinct generational archetypes that influence values, beliefs, and the societal trajectory.
Generational Patterns and Societal Change
Generational biographies from the past highlight how different generations shape societal structures and values. The transition through high, awakening, unraveling, and crisis turnings reflects shifts in community strength, individualism, and conventional norms. The interplay between generational archetypes like prophets, nomads, heroes, and artists impacts social behavior, beliefs, and responses to crises.
The Transition towards Greater Equality and Authority
The evolution through the fourth turning culminates in the emergence of greater equality, strengthened authority, and revived commitment to future planning. External and internal conflicts drive a shift from defiance to conventionality, where time-tested values and norms become prevalent. This transformation underscores the necessity of fear and urgency to solidify societal cohesion and instill long-term stability.
Implications of Community and Conventionality
As society navigates through the challenges of the fourth turning, a renewed focus on community building, conventionality of moral values, and authority structures emerges. The transition echoes historical patterns where adherence to established norms and collective actions become crucial in times of crisis. The transformation towards conventionality signifies a shift towards unity, efficiency, and long-term planning for societal progress.
Growing Tribalism and Conflict Tensions
The episode delves into the rising levels of societal division and tribalism, noting the global trend towards aligning anti-democratic factions against democratic forces. Drawing parallels to historical examples of civil wars, the speaker highlights the increasing likelihood of conflict escalation. Examples such as predicting global financial crashes and societal polarization emphasizing the necessity for future preparations in the face of potential civil unrest and secession movements.
Changing Values and Community Building
The discussion shifts towards the evolving landscape of faith and values in society, tracing the shifts from salvation by faith to a focus on works and community building. The speaker notes a trend towards interior reflection in past awakenings transitioning to a renewed emphasis on faith through actions. The episode highlights the need for faith-based communities to adapt and address contemporary challenges, steering towards building cohesive and functional communities for future generations.
Patrick Bet-David sits down with author Neil Howe to discuss the "Fourth Turning" theory and its impact on societal change. Together, they delve into the potential for an impending revolution and what it could mean for the future.
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Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.