HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on the homebuilder survey collapse
16 snips
May 16, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for his sharp insights on economic cycles, shares his analysis of the recent collapse in the homebuilder survey. He delves into the complex dynamics of the housing market, highlighting challenges like fluctuating mortgage rates and trade policy impacts. Logan compares builders' strategies to those in the oil industry and explores the implications of declining inventory on home sales. Their conversation sheds light on the intricate relationship between economic data and builder sentiment.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Homebuilder Survey Collapse Insight
- The homebuilder survey collapse is linked to elevated mortgage rates, tariffs, and uncertainty in material prices.
- Builder confidence affects new home sales and recessions, as falling survey and job losses warn economic downturns.
Mortgage Rates Drive Builder Sales
- Lower mortgage rates significantly boost builders' ability to sell homes and stimulate permits.
- The 10-year yield is a key driver for housing; yields below 4% typically improve builder confidence and sales.
Home Prices Resist Rate Rises
- Historically, home prices do not significantly fall even when mortgage rates are high.
- Past crashes involved distress foreclosures; current market lacks such triggers, so prices remain stable nationally.