In this episode, the podcast explores sayings on volatility and risk, discussing topics such as the correlation of securities, the relationship between equities and interest rates, the concept of things breaking in markets, and the insights of Alan Greenspan. It also delves into the intersection of high finance and entrepreneurship as well as the impact of historical events on markets.
Fragilities in markets arise from the passage of time, making it challenging to fully understand historical events' impact in the current era.
Correlations play a crucial role in asset prices, and there are no bad securities, only bad correlations.
Deep dives
The Fragility of Markets Over Time
The speaker discusses the fragilities in markets that originate from the passage of time. Historical market events become blurry in the rearview mirror, making it challenging to appreciate their impact. The speaker cites the example of Paul Volcker's fight against inflation in 1979 and how it's difficult to fully understand the implications of high interest rates back then in the current lowflation era. The speaker also mentions the tendency of investors to succumb to recency bias, believing that tomorrow will unfold much like today has.
The Role of Correlations in the Market
The speaker highlights the importance of correlations in the market and how they affect asset prices. They explain that there are no bad securities, only bad correlations. The speaker cites the negative correlation between stock and bond returns in the pre-COVID era, highlighting the effectiveness of duration exposure in buffering portfolios during risk-off episodes. They also discuss the impact of low stock and bond correlations during periods of macro and global uncertainty, emphasizing the need to account for changes in risk regimes.
Equities' Vulnerability to Interest Rate Moves
The speaker asserts that equities are short the straddle on rates, meaning that both falling and rising interest rates can have negative consequences for risk assets. They cite examples such as the 2022 bond market sell-off and the 2013 Taper Tantrum, where higher rates and rate vol caused stock market losses. The speaker emphasizes the negative correlation between the S&P and the MOVE index, which measures interest rate volatility. They also highlight the risks associated with fast transitions in the interest rate market and urge investors to consider the impact on equities.
Hello! You’ve reached part 2 of our 5 part series “25 Sayings on Vol and Risk”. Over the first half hour episode, we kicked off with the first 5. Over these 30 minutes, we shall explore sayings 6 through 10. The task at hand is to make headway on our sayings, and, hopefully, entertain you a bit in the process. My goal, share some of what I’ve written down on the back of napkins over the years to help me tie together what I’ve observed and experienced in markets. Through these aphorisms as one might call them, I’m hoping to give you some stuff to chew on and expand your thinking on matters of risk.
Here are our second five:
“The next crisis to occur is the one that happened longest ago”
“There are no bad securities, only bad correlations”
“Equities are short the straddle on rates”
“In markets, it’s move fast and things break”
“Greenspan was right, sort of”
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