Unchained Why 2026 Is 'Too Chaotic' to Make Crypto Predictions
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Jan 9, 2026 
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, and Ryan Graham, Research Analyst at Messari, discuss the tumultuous landscape of crypto heading into 2026. They examine the breakdown of Bitcoin's halving cycle and the macroeconomic forces at play, such as Fed policies and geopolitical tensions. The conversation shifts to Ethereum's value, Solana's competition for real-world applications, and the burgeoning field of prediction markets. They also highlight the growing importance of on-chain privacy for future blockchain applications.
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2026 Is Too Chaotic To Predict
- Alex Thorn calls 2026 "too chaotic" to predict Bitcoin and says options price wide outcomes from $50K to $250K.
- He warns 2026 could see both new cycle lows and new all-time highs within the year.
Four-Year Cycle Is Dead
- Ryan Graham declares the four-year Bitcoin cycle dead after mixed 2025 performance and pre-halving ATHs.
- He frames Bitcoin now as a macro asset whose path depends on broader macro questions like rates and fiscal policy.
Macro Forces Push Both Ways
- Alex Thorn highlights dovish Fed and fiscal stimulus as bullish but warns inflation and AI-driven job risks offset gains.
- He says these countervailing forces make market direction in 2026 highly uncertain.