Odd Lots How a Trade War With China Could Become a Hot War
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Jul 26, 2025 
Dale Copeland, a Professor of International Relations at the University of Virginia and author of 'A World Safe for Commerce,' delves into the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. He highlights how historical trade conflicts have led to military confrontations, with current dynamics mirroring past events like Japan's invasion of Manchuria. The discussion covers the implications of rare earth metals and technological rivalry, emphasizing the need for strategic decision-making to avoid a hot war.
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Trade's Role in Conflict
- Most major conflicts between great powers involve trade and commerce issues.
- Positive future trade expectations typically prevent conflict, while negative expectations increase war risk.
Dynamic Realism Explained
- Great powers balance between constraining rivals and benefiting from trade.
- Allowing China trade growth encourages peace by providing incentives against aggressive conflict.
Japan’s Trade-Driven Shift to War
- Japan’s shift from moderation to aggression was driven by trade disruptions.
- The 1930 U.S. Smoot-Hawley tariffs devastated Japan’s trade, leading to invasions and World War II.
