FICC Focus EM Lens: From Risk to Resilience With Andersen’s Natalucci
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Oct 7, 2025 Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics and former IMF official, shares his insights on global financial stability and emerging markets. He discusses the challenges of a multipolar world, the shifting dynamics of the dollar, and alternative stores of value like gold and Bitcoin amid concerns over currency debasement. Natalucci highlights the attractiveness of emerging markets due to credible policies and real rates, while also addressing AI investment's impact on economic growth and the risks associated with frontier sovereign debt.
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Regime Change To A Multipolar World
- We are in a regime change toward a multipolar, fragmented world with recurring crises and nonlinear transitions.
- The US is rewriting rules outside traditional international coordination, altering global order and investor assumptions.
Hedging, Not Exiting, Explains Dollar Weakness
- Dollar moves reflect increased hedging of currency exposure even as investors keep equity allocations to the US.
- Institutions are raising equity hedge ratios to retain equity exposure while limiting dollar risk.
Dollar Debasement Talk Has Multiple Drivers
- Concerns about US fiscal sustainability, rule-of-law erosion, and threats to Fed independence fuel talk of dollar debasement.
- Alternatives like gold attract attention as central-bank balance-sheet support wanes and QT reversals expose price-sensitive marginal buyers.