David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, discusses his two strongest conviction trades: long duration and long gold. They also cover topics such as recession risk, bear market in stocks, and inflation outlook. Additionally, they explore the reversal of the bond bear market, potential opportunities in uranium, and analyze the oil and equity markets. The chapter concludes with a discussion on gold chart levels and an opportunity to hedge portfolios for potential market turmoil.
Read more
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ may experience a pullback soon due to approaching resistance levels, while small caps are expected to outperform.
Cheap options prices present an opportunity for buying insurance as option sellers may be underestimating market turmoil.
Gold's bullish trend, driven by the Fed's easing cycle in 2023, could lead to a potential breakthrough and rise to $2,140.
Deep dives
S&P 500 and NASDAQ face resistance levels, possible pullback ahead
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are approaching resistance levels and may experience a pullback. Call options are being sold, indicating a pause in bullish sentiment, while put options are being bought as a hedge. The S&P 500 has key support at 4,500 and may test the 4,450 area. In contrast, small caps, represented by the Russell, are expected to outperform.
Volatility index and one-year volatility remain low
The VIX and one-year volatility have hit multi-year lows, indicating cheap options prices. Option sellers may be underestimating potential market turmoil, presenting an opportunity for buying insurance. The low volatility environment may persist in the short term, but option buyers have the edge.
Gold breaks resistance, eyes prior all-time high
Gold has broken resistance at the October highs and is approaching the prior all-time high at $2,085. A clean break above this level could lead to a quick rise to $2,140. However, a pullback may occur before a potential breakthrough, and the overall bullish trend may be driven by the easing cycle of the Fed in 2023.
US dollar critical moment, potential impact on risk assets
The US dollar has reached critical levels, with resistance around 104-105 and support near the 102 handle. A continuation of the short-term correction towards 102 could be a tailwind for risk assets. However, a strengthening dollar back towards 104-105 would be like a wet blanket on risk assets.
OPEC Plus expected to make production cut or extend existing cuts
OPEC Plus is expected to announce a production cut or an extension of the current cuts. The delay in the meeting indicates the need for consensus on a production cut. The market's perception that growing consensus reduces the likelihood of cuts is misguided. The goal may be to keep the front of the WTI futures curve in backwardation, discouraging inventory builds in the US.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Rosenberg Research Founder, David Rosenberg. They discuss Rosie’s two strongest conviction trades are long duration and long gold and whether the bear market is over in stocks and much more. https://bit.ly/3uEMvOg