091: Antifragile Prioritisation

A lot of tech companies have bought into the idea of Build > Measure > Learn.

But the "Build" bit always takes longer than anyone's anticipating, so the "Measure" and the "Learn" get squeezed out.

Even though many of the people working in that system aren't happy that they're building crap and would love to be measuring and learning.

In this episode, we talk about using Multiverse Mapping to help you prioritise your work so you benefit from uncertainty instead of being blown up by it.

With real world examples, references to angry Lebanese people, a detour through performance management and another celebrity monster,

We get back to Antifragile Prioritisation at 23:10.

At the beginning of any project, we know the least we'll ever know about this project. So we should assume that we're going to learn important things as we do the project. But you can't just wait until you know the answers, because you'll only learn them through doing the project.

Expirere: you need either experience or experimentation.

In brief: create a model for how you're going to succeed, break that down into a level of granularity where you can identify critical behaviours, identify where you're facing the most uncertainty, then probe there first. Sounds trickier than it is – if you use Multiverse Mapping it's quite simple.

Uncertainty is not the same as risk – uncertainty is generative, so you'll often get new, exciting ideas by running into the uncertainty. AND you'll also reduce your risk.

And then we kinda debate around how much of the process of Multiverse Mapping can be explicit vs implicit. You do need to create a record for accountability, but don't make the mistake of trying to write down everything. Like all processes that support emergence: it's not that everything will just happen by itself, it's that you make something explicit and you get a happy side effect of updating lots of your tacit (shared) understanding.

And we talk about using your Multiverse Map to set Pivot Triggers, which enable you to talk more strategically with stakeholders.

And so you won't be doing Build > Measure > Learn – you'll be doing all three at the same time.

Finally, we talk about using Multiverse Maps at a higher level of granularity to help you decide between different strategies.

Linky Goodness

• Master Mutliverse Mapping: https://triggerstrategy.com/multiverse-mapping
• Satirical Skin in the Game review: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/25/skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-digested-read
• One of Luca Dellanna's introductions to antifragility: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS1CqSfxF4o
• Estimating Complexity by Liz Keogh: https://lizkeogh.com/2013/07/21/estimating-complexity/
• Vaughn Tan's Generative Uncertainty: https://vaughntan.org/generative-uncertainty

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