Ep94. Gaza Ceasefire: What’s Next?

Jan 16, 2025

A tentative ceasefire between Israel and Hamas offers a glimmer of hope, but its fragility raises concerns about trust and potential outcomes. The hosts delve into U.S. foreign policy differences, particularly Trump's strongman tactics versus Biden's diplomatic hurdles. They discuss the pressing need for credible Palestinian leadership and a comprehensive plan for Gaza's recovery. With a focus on local governance and the economic challenges ahead, the conversation emphasizes empathy in conflict resolution while highlighting the voices often overlooked in peace negotiations.

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ANECDOTE

Friend in Gaza

Alex Hall Hall has a friend in Gaza named Nabil who survived the conflict.
Nabil and his family are deeply scarred, and there were still bombings happening around them.

INSIGHT

Ceasefire Deal Phases

The ceasefire deal has three phases, starting with a six-week truce and hostage releases.
Deeper issues like Gaza's governance and Palestinian life remain unaddressed.

INSIGHT

Trump's Role

Trump's pressure, rather than Biden's, led to the current deal.
Trump used both incentives and strong-arm tactics with Netanyahu.

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A tentative ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has been announced by the US and Qatar. The deal would see a phased release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and an end to Israeli bombardments. If the first round of conditions are met, the cease fire should continue and culminate in further negotiations for additional swaps of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. But what’s next? Will it hold? And how do we get from this transactional bartering to longer term stability in the region?

To discuss this and more, Alex Hall Hall and Jane Kinninmont final co-host a podcast of their own. They (who both have on-the-ground experience in Gaza) discuss: the challenges of establishing trust between the conflicting parties; the fragility of the deal that is currently being agreed; and the need for Western leaders who are trying to leverage the sides for further progress to also emphasise with local populations’ concerns.

Plus: does Trump’s strongman diplomacy actually work?

As they Order the Disorder, the ladies discuss the potential for a new Palestinian leadership, the importance of political will/brinksmanship, and the need for a comprehensive approach to rebuilding Gaza – including addressing economic dependencies.

Producer: George McDonagh

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn

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Show Notes Links

Jane’s Nov 2023 analysis on need for Europe to chart a political pathway out of the violence - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/europe-and-gaza-political-pathways-out-of-the-violence/

Jane’s 2020 article on virtual dialogue with Palestinian youth - https://theelders.org/news/palestinian-perspectives-future

Jane slags off Jared Kushner’s approach to “peace” in an oped for Haaretz during Trump 1 - https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2019-06-16/ty-article-opinion/.premium/jared-kushners-paradigm-busting-mideast-peace-deal-just-wont-work/0000017f-e9a9-d639-af7f-e9ffd4e00000

Read What Gazans Really Think of the War, Who They Blame, and What They Want to Happen Next by Alex https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/20/gaza-hamas-israel-opinion-poll/

Polling from a youth-led Palestinian polling organisation:

https://institute4progress.org/

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